Will Latvia form a minimalist center-left government?
A wider coalition hinges on the conservative-centrist United List
Latvia may be heading toward a “minimalist” center-left government of the centrist-liberal New Unity party (JV), the social democratic Progessives (Pro) and the Greens and Farmers Alliance (ZZS) after the socially conservative centrist United List (AS) seems to have backed away from Prime Minister-designate Evika Siliņa’s four-party model.
Instead, the AS, an amalgam of the Latvian Regional Alliance, the Green Party and the local Liepāja Party said on August 29 that it has its own model for a government which it did not disclose in any detail.
The three-party coalition, if it is the only alternative for Siliņa, will still have 52 votes in the 100-seat Latvian parliament or Saeima. What alternative the AS may propose – they are to have a previously unscheduled meeting with Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs the afternoon of August 30 (today at the writing) – remains to be seen. It is unlikely that they will try to persuade ZZS to break with Siliņa and join something the AS has put together. Even so with that unlikely scenario and short of bringing in, for example, the 8 votes of the populist conservative and some analysts say, crypto-pro-Russian Latvia First party (LPV), there is no way the AS can get a majority in the Saeima without JV.
It boils down to what Siliņa is willing to risk or make a deal for in order to bring the AS “aboard” and get a “supermajority” of 67 votes in the Saeima. She is already carrying a reputational risk with ZZS and its ties to the convicted criminal and former Ventspils mayor Aivars Lembergs. The AS has already said that offering a place in the coalition to ZZS was equivalent to bringing in Lembergs, even though the feisty, outspoken “politician” is likely to go back to jail after his appeal is heard
Wrong man in the middle? The ZZS leadership with Aivars Lembergs in the blue suit. Photo: ZZS.lv
The only way to keep the ZZS out is to go back to the coalition model that outgoing Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš saw as insufficiently dynamic and falling short of expectations – a government of JV, AS and NA, with no possible role for Pro and little hope of passing “European” legislation on gender-neutral civil partnership and ratifying the Istanbul Convention on violence against women. “European” in Latvian political discourse is a term used to describe the egalitarian, tolerant, non-discriminatory principles of liberal democracy as ideally practiced in western European countries.
With accelerating the Latvian economy one of the primary tasks of the new government, the AS could be an asset through the business contacts of its founder, the architect and developer Uldis Pīlēns. Pīlēns, who did not run in the 2022 elections, acted as a surprise spoiler in the parliament-based election of Latvia’s president, breaking with an understanding that the coalition would support the re-election of incumbent President Egils Levits.
Pīlēns candidacy and subsequent loss in the Saeima vote triggered the political tremors that have led to the current situation. The JV nominated then Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkēvičs for President and got him elected with votes from the opposition ZZS and Pro. One reason Levits dropped out of the race was that he feared becoming dependent on the votes of what he considered “dubious” parties such as ZZS, probably less so Pro. Latvia also lost a long-term, respected Foreign Minister who is yet to be replaced.
Rinkēvičs in his new role has also shown new talents visiting cities and towns around the country, charming local residents and “ordinary Latvians” as well as showing up within hours of a storm disaster to comfort and listen to people whose homes and farms were destroyed or damaged. However, the President can only stage-manage the formation of a new government within the confines of how well the political parties in the Saeima can reach any kind of compromise or consensus. That, in Latvia, is proving to be problematic no matter how you try to match the pieces.